This analysis provides insights into emission trends over time, the impact of regulatory standards, and vehicle performance. For example, the measurements show a consistent and substantial decrease of at least 70% in fleet-average emissions with newer model years for hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxide (NO) across all four locations. Trends in Alberta, Virginia, and Colorado are closely aligned, reflecting Canada’s adoption of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency standards since 1988. On the other hand, vehicles in Mexico City, particularly taxis, exhibit significantly higher emissions. In part, this trend can be attributed to factors such as the use of gasoline with higher sulfur content and Mexico’s national emissions standards, last updated in 2005; new model years show significant improvement in NO and CO emissions, but even these vehicles have much higher HC emissions than vehicles in Canada and the United States. 

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This report serves to inform the development of SCL’s charging infrastructure strategy as it plans for upcoming MHDV electrification. Key players expected to lead the surge in electrification are Seattle’s main bus transit provider, King County Metro, and the robust local freight and distribution network serving the Ports of Seattle and Tacoma. The researchers incorporate local vehicle activity data and other information specific to the Seattle area to determine future charging needs within the SCL service territory from 2025 through 2040. The modeling predicts:

• There will be a marked increase in MHDV charging stations needed around 2030 based on fleet electrification goals and supporting regulation.
• The total charger nameplate capacity and peak loads in the SCL service territory will increase over three orders of magnitude between 2025 and 2040.
• MHDV charging demand will likely be concentrated in the southern part of SCL’s service territory, where most warehouse and distribution centers are located, increasing the need for additional local distribution grid capacity. This industrial zone will likely require assessment in the near term to determine needed substation upgrades and investment in existing infrastructure.

Based on the modeling predictions and discussions with SCL staff, the report offers the following recommendations for SCL to consider as it formulates its charging infrastructure strategy:

• Gathering information from fleets, especially those with known transition plans
• Prioritizing infrastructure development in “no regrets” zones where there is a known need for future grid capacity
• Addressing potential grid capacity constraints
• Preparing for opportunity and en-route charging needs
• Accounting for the needs of fleet customers in ratemaking
• Adjusting internal operations to reflect changing business needs
• Advancing equity goals in infrastructure planning

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When Canada finalized the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard (EVAS) for zero-emission light-duty vehicles (LDVs) late last year, it was a milestone for reducing the country’s carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from road transport. The regulation phases out sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by first requiring 20% zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in new LDV sales in 2026 and then progressively increasing the ZEV requirement to 60% by 2030 and 100% by 2035. Setting a similarly ambitious regulation for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) is an important next step to put Canada on a path to achieving its goal of economy-wide net-zero emissions by 2050. 

The reduction in emissions from EVAS is expected to be substantial: Our estimates indicate that implementing it would reduce well-to-wheel CO₂ emissions from Canada’s LDV fleet by 82% by 2050 compared with 2020. Tailpipe emissions from all transport segments are the second-largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in Canada, and LDVs are approximately 50% of those emissions. This means that emissions from the HDV segment need to come down, as well. There are already some HDV targets in the Canada 2030 Emissions Plan (ERP), which proposes reaching 35% zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles in new sales by 2030 and 100% by 2040. But the ERP is not binding legislation like EVAS.  

Setting a binding HDV regulation could continue the momentum from EVAS. Historically, Canada harmonized its vehicle regulations with those set by the United States, and the adoption of the EVAS marked the first major departure from this. The United States has not yet adopted a timeline for the phaseout of ICE sales for LDVs, but the EVAS does; the EVAS is closely aligned with California’s Advanced Clean Cars II regulation, which also requires 100% ZEV sales for LDVs by 2035. For HDVs, California’s timeline for achieving 100% ZEVs in new sales, as outlined in the Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) rule, is 4 years earlier (2036) than the Global Memorandum of Understanding on Zero-Emission Medium- And Heavy-Duty Vehicles 2040 targets that the United States and Canada signed onto and which Canada has incorporated in its non-binding ERP.  

If Canada were to craft HDV regulations that go beyond the ERP and align with California, it would mean capturing significant emissions-reduction benefits. To understand how much, let’s consider the three ZEV transition scenarios that the ICCT modeled in a recent study. The Baseline scenario reflects the current trajectory of HDV ZEV adoption in Canada, which is shaped by policies adopted at the provincial and national levels through March 2023 and factors in modest, market-led growth in ZEV sales through 2050. In the other two scenarios—Political Momentum and Ambitious—Canada realizes its goal of achieving 100% zero-emission HDV sales by 2040, but the interim targets for 2030 and 2035 differ. In the Political Momentum scenario, the intermediate sales targets for 2030 and 2035 are 37% (just above the ERP target) and 72% (based on linear interpolation), respectively. The Ambitious scenario, meanwhile, establishes intermediate targets of 60% and 88% for the same years. The emissions from these sales trajectories are in Figure 1.  

Figure 1. Canada’s well-to-wheel CO₂ emissions from heavy-duty vehicles under three scenarios for ZEV uptake. The data labels show the percent change in annual emissions from 2020-2050 and cumulative emissions over the same period.

In the Political Momentum and Ambitious scenarios, accelerating ZEV deployment leads to deep reductions in emissions compared with the Baseline. The Political Momentum scenario is projected to yield a 77% reduction in CO₂ emissions below 2020 levels by 2050 and remove 2,050 million more tonnes of CO₂ between 2020 and 2050 than the Baseline. Ramping up intermediate ZEV adoption targets, as represented in the Ambitious scenario, could yield an 81% reduction in CO₂ emissions from 2020 to 2050 compared with the Baseline; this would avoid an additional 187 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions compared with the Political Momentum scenario. In other words, Canada could boost cumulative CO₂ emission reductions by nearly 10% by adopting higher interim ZEV targets for commercial trucks and buses on the way to 100% ZEV HDV sales by 2040. These additional emission reductions would be equivalent to taking 44.5 million gasoline-powered passenger vehicles off the road for one year.   

The potential is especially significant as the risks of overshooting the 1.5°C global temperature target continue to rise. Canada’s recent milestone EVAS rule for LDVs is a pivotal step in aligning the trajectory of the country’s road vehicle fleet with its climate goals. Now there is the opportunity to design a binding ZEV regulation for HDVs in line with the targets outlined in California’s ACF regulation. Doing so would support decarbonization of Canada’s HDV fleet in line with the country’s climate goals and advance the planet toward a well-below 2°C future. 

Author

Richard Kirschner
Research Fellow

Related Publications

VISION 2050: STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2°C

Emphasizes the effectiveness of ambitious zero-emission vehicle sales and age restrictions on used vehicle sales in significantly reducing cumulative CO2 emissions, along with other strategies to achieve well-below 2°C of warming.

Print

Decarbonizing TransportZero-emission vehicles

SectorHeavy vehicles

RegionUnited States & Canada

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This ICCT study models the effect of introducing a Canada-wide carbon price on interprovincial flights. It also assesses whether a frequent flyer levy (FFL) can achieve the same change in demand as carbon pricing in a more equitable way. The analysis estimates the impact on demand and emissions in 2030, 2040, and 2050 by flight distance, seating class, and different fuel efficiency assumptions. This hypothetical approach does not intend to reflect the policies and requirements of the Canadian federal carbon pricing system.

A $123 per tonne carbon price (with a nominal price of $170 in 2030) on aviation could potentially reduce domestic interprovincial passenger air travel demand by 1.8 million tickets in 2030, 2.6 million in 2040, and 3.4 million in 2050 under a business-as-usual emission scenario. If sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is introduced to reduce emissions and carbon revenue is recycled to subsidize its cost, travelers will not forgo as many flights.

A carbon price that is applied equally to everyone would result in fewer trips from infrequent and occasional fliers. An FFL can help shift the impact of demand-reduction strategies away from these passengers, keeping the travel plans of infrequent flyers intact. A frequent flyer levy could be higher for business travel to place more decarbonization costs onto corporations rather than individuals.

This page and paper were updated 18 June 2024 with no changes to any data or analysis.

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EPA’s final rule is anticipated to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from light-duty vehicles by about 11% per year, an improvement over the annual reduction in the current standard of 8% per year for 2023-2026. The rule is expected to lead to a cumulative reduction of 7.2 billion metric tons of CO₂-equivalent emissions through 2055. The performance-based standards are technology neutral and provide automakers with the flexibility to comply by using a combination of advanced gasoline, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric powertrains. The final rule will promote the growth in plug-in electric vehicle sales, expand consumer options for advanced combustion, hybrid, and other low and zero-emission vehicles, and paves the way for billions of dollars in consumer savings.

EPA estimates that the rule could result in a 53% light-duty sales share for plug-in electric vehicles in 2030, including 44% battery electric and 9% plug-in hybrid electric. In 2032, the rule could result in a 68% plug-in electric vehicle share, including 56% battery electric and 13% plug-in hybrid electric. The rule sends a clear signal to automakers, charging companies, and utilities about the growing market. EPA’s rule is a blueprint for the pace of the electric transition in the U.S. and puts the country on track to catch up to regions like the European Union (EU) and China which have been leading the global transition to EVs. In 2023, the U.S. had about 9% light-duty EV sales compared to about 21% in Europe and about 33% in China.

EPA’s final rule also tightens limits on harmful emissions of particulate matter and nitrogen oxides for gasoline vehicles. These measures will deliver real and significant health benefits, reducing lung cancer, heart disease, and childhood asthma, especially in communities disproportionately exposed to pollution.

EPA’s final multipollutant standard for light- and medium-duty vehicles is historic, locking in the transition to cleaner vehicles in the U.S. and building on billions of dollars in industry investments and incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act that have primed the market for widespread electric vehicle growth. All of the building blocks are in place that make delivering on this final rule achievable, feasible, and cost-effective.

In response to EPA’s final rule, Rachel Muncrief, Acting Executive Director of the International Council on Clean Transportation, issued the following statement: “These final standards send a powerful message about the accelerating transition to electric vehicles in the United States, and for the first time put the nation on a path to decarbonizing the light- and medium-duty vehicle sectors.”

Figure 1. Light truck CO2 emissions, normalized to CAFE

 

Figure 2. Light truck CO2 emissions, normalized to CAFE

-END-

Contacts:
Aaron Isenstadt, U.S. Passenger Vehicles Senior Researcher
Pete Slowik, U.S. Passenger Vehicles Lead
Stephanie Searle, Chief Program Officer

About the International Council on Clean Transportation
The International Council on Clean Transportation is an independent nonprofit organization founded to provide first-rate, unbiased research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our mission is to improve the environmental performance and energy efficiency of road, marine, and air transportation, in order to benefit public health and mitigate climate change.

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By profiling the Great Lakes shipping industry, port infrastructure, and bunkering operations, and assessing technological maturity, costs, and life-cycle emissions of alternative fuels, the report offers insights for decarbonizing the region’s shipping industry. The study outlines a series of policy recommendations aimed at fostering the adoption of alternative fuels and power options in the region, emphasizing the expansion of onshore power supply, exploring methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen as potential fuels, and fostering collaboration for data collection to inform policy and promote technological advancements.

Additional resources:

• Summary presentation: Feasibility Study of Future Energy Options for Great Lakes Shipping
• Summary Webinar

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The analysis outlines different scenarios for when ZEVs will reach upfront cost parity with ICEVs, considering factors such as battery costs, inflation, and raw material prices. In the baseline scenario, ZEVs are projected to achieve upfront cost parity with ICEVs by 2035 for certain vehicle segments. In a more pessimistic scenario, luxury segments may not reach parity by 2040. An optimistic scenario envisions cost parity across all classes and segments by 2040, with some achieving it by 2035. The analysis also highlights the impact of indirect overhead cost assumptions on the timing of total original equipment manufacturer (OEM) cost parity.

Notably, the analysis shows that plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) will not reach cost parity with ICEVs in any overlapping classes or segments. The paper notes that additional measures, apart from government subsidies, may help hasten cost parity, including the adoption of advanced battery technology and increased government support for charging infrastructure.

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