(Washington, D.C.) July 31, 2024 —   The auto industry can eliminate more than 95% of greenhouse gas emissions from producing the steel for passenger vehicles by switching to fossil fuel-free steel, according to a new report released today by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).

“Primary steel, a critical component of today’s auto sector supply chain, is a global driver of greenhouse gas emissions and a danger for the health of local communities, due to the industry’s heavy reliance on coal. Already, steelmakers are piloting fossil fuel-free technologies that can eliminate 95% of the emissions from producing steel in the average vehicle” said Anh Bui, a researcher at the ICCT. “As automakers invest in strategies to meet ambitious climate goals, prioritizing fossil-free steel would slash emissions and create a powerful market signal.”

The report, Technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from automotive steel in the United States and the European Union, compares strategies for automakers to reduce steel-related emissions from vehicles.

Most of the greenhouse gas emissions from the lifetime of vehicles comes from the gasoline and diesel they burn. But vehicle manufacturing causes significant emissions too – and as we make progress in leading countries switch over to electric vehicles running on an increasingly decarbonized grid, those manufacturing emissions grow in importance. To achieve a fully net zero GHG transportation sector by 2050, it will be necessary to drastically reduce the embodied emissions in key materials like steel and batteries.

Procuring primary steel without fossil fuels is the strongest possible pathway to reduce steel-related emissions from vehicles – and this could be done at scale in the U.S. by the end of the decade. Collectively, automakers are among the largest buyers in the steel market in both the U.S. and EU. In 2022, the auto industry consumed 26% of the 82 million metric tons of steel produced in the U.S., and 60% of all domestic primary steel. In the same year, 17% of the 136 million metric tons of steel produced in Europe went to the auto industry, and 24% of all domestic primary steel. Due to the primary steel industry’s heavy reliance on coal, steel is responsible for up to 27% of embodied emissions in a typical internal combustion engine vehicle.

“Procuring primary steel made with green hydrogen and renewable electricity instead of fossil fuels takes a big chunk out of supply chain emissions — but it’s also very cost-effective for automakers,” said Marta Negri, an associate researcher at the ICCT. “For less than 1% of vehicle costs, automakers can help transition one of the dirtiest industries on the planet toward clean energy, provide clean air to local communities, and meet their climate goals.”

– end –

Media Contact
Jessica Peyton, Associate Communications Specialist, ICCT
communications@theicct.org

Publication details
Title: Technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from automotive steel in the United States and the European Union
Authors: Anh Bui, Aaron Isenstadt, Yuanrong Zhou, Georg Bieker, Marta Negri

About the International Council on Clean Transportation
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent research organization providing first-rate, unbiased research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our mission is to improve the environmental performance and energy efficiency of road, marine, and air transportation, in order to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. Founded in 2001, we are a nonprofit organization working under grants and contracts from private foundations and public institutions.

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Steel manufacturing is one of the most energy and emission intensive industries worldwide, relying heavily on fossil fuels, especially coal, in primary production. In vehicle manufacturing, steel is the most used material by mass, typically making up between 50% and 66% of the vehicle, depending on the model, segment, and powertrain type.

Given the automotive industry’s substantial steel consumption, automakers may be uniquely suited to drive demand for fossil fuel-free steel and influence the steel industry transition away from coal-based steel production.

This analysis examines the ability of automotive industries in the United States and the European Union to reduce GHG emissions of automotive steel through:

• Discussing current steel production pathways and associated GHG emissions
• Describing pathways to produce fossil fuel-free steel
• Exploring other modes to reduce steel demand in vehicles
• Comparing GHG emission reduction potential for internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the United States and the European Union
• Summarizing the other aspects necessary for the transition to green steel

Figure. U.S. and EU steel-only vehicle manufacturing GHG emissions for internal combustion engine and battery electric vehicles by steel production pathway

Note: Production pathways are Baseline blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) in 2022; Best Possible scenario of BF-BOF with renewable electricity and more efficient technologies; best possible direct reduced iron (DRI) + electric arc furnace (EAF) which uses green hydrogen and renewable electricity; and best possible molten oxide electrolysis (MOE) using renewable electricity.

The research arrives at the following key results:

• The auto industry can eliminate more than 95% of greenhouse gas emissions from producing steel for passenger vehicles by switching to fossil fuel-free steel. Doing so would reduce overall vehicle manufacturing emissions by up to 27%.
• Using fossil fuel-free steel in vehicle production increases cost by $100–$200, or less than 1% of the price of an average new vehicle
• Fossil fuel-free primary steel production technologies already exist, and production capacity can increase, but not without commitments from buyers.

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It’s been more than 2 years since I described here how I selected a battery electric car model to meet my personal needs: a retail price below €50,000, a type-approval electric range of more than 300 km, and a fast-charging capability of at least 150 kW. In a few weeks, I’ll return my vehicle to the dealer as it’s the end of the 3-year lease period.

So, how was it? In short, pretty uneventful. I never suffered from range anxiety. Most of the time my battery range was more than enough just relying on my Wallbox charger at home. And if I really needed some extra juice, there was always a public charger nearby. I’d describe my experience as one of range serenity instead of range anxiety.

My experience matches the conclusions of a recent ICCT study which found that a car with a battery on the smaller end of the range of capacities on the market is sufficient for the vast majority of urban and rural car drivers. I feel that driving an electric car nowadays is not substantially different from driving a conventional combustion engine car, except that the electric car is quieter, cleaner, and the exceptionally strong torque is more fun to drive!

What about the real-world energy consumption of my electric car? From previous analyses we know there’s roughly a 14% gap between official (Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure [WLTP]) values and real-world fuel consumption and CO₂ values for conventional gasoline and diesel cars. For plug-in hybrids, the difference is larger and these typically consume three to five times more fuel than advertised by official test values. In the European Union, all new combustion engine vehicles must report anonymized real-world consumption values via on-board fuel consumption meters and statistically meaningful results are accessible to the public. Battery electric vehicles are still exempt, though, and that unfortunately leaves us with a data and knowledge gap.

I kept track of my own real-world consumption values and Figure 1 summarizes my observations. For this chart, I also used data from Spritmonitor.de, a free public platform that’s well known and commonly used among vehicle owners, especially in Germany where I live. Based on a total 13,000 km of driving and a total of 2.4 MWh of electricity that I tracked as part of 50 re-charging events over more than 2 years, my average real-world electricity consumption was 18.7 kWh/100 km. The fluctuation throughout the year is interesting: During the summer months, my average consumption was as low as 14 kWh/100 km, and in December the average was nearly 26 kWh/100 km. It’s also important to note that my electric vehicle is equipped with a heat pump that uses electric energy more efficiently to heat the cabin and battery in winter.

Figure 1. Energy consumption values for my electric car over more than 2 years, from left to right: monthly average variation, official WLTP value, my own real-world consumption, average on-board computer value, and average reporting of Spritmonitor users.

Compared with other drivers on Spritmonitor who have the same vehicle model configuration (58 kWh battery, 125 kW electric engine), I am pretty much average. Leaving two extreme outliers aside, there are 18 other Spritmonitor users who reported average energy consumption values between 18.4 and 23.1 kWh/100 km, with an aggregated average of 19 kWh/100 km. 

Comparing my own real-world energy consumption with the official WLTP type-approval value (16.7 kWh/100 km), I am about 12% above. There isn’t much data from Europe to compare my findings with, but in a comprehensive study from China, my ICCT colleagues found a real-world energy consumption gap of around 10%–20% with WLTP for most passenger cars, and my 12% falls nicely into that range. And it’s re-assuring that the real-world gap for my electric car is a bit lower than the 14% we found for combustion engine cars in a recent study. 

What I find worrying, though, is what I consider to be a large gap between the average energy consumption value the on-board computer of my car shows (15.6 kWh/100 km) and the real-world value I observed. This difference is about 19%. Most likely, the most important contributing factor here are losses in the on-board charger of the vehicle that occur when re-charging at an A/C charger such as the 11 kW Wallbox I have at home. According to studies, these charging losses add about 17.5% on average to the real-world energy consumption of a battery electric vehicle. 

A closer look at my typical driving patterns helps understand my real-world energy consumption and how an electric vehicle works in practice. Figure 2 shows my most typical driving pattern, an inner-urban trip through the flat suburban surroundings of Berlin of about 20 minutes driving and 10 km one-way distance. I take this kind of trip about four times per week, back and forth, and that adds up to about 4,000 km per year. As shown in the figure, velocity jumps up and down—there are many stops, and my maximum speed was about 60 km/h. During these trips, the state of charge of the vehicle’s battery only drops by about 2 percentage points. 

Figure 2. My most typical driving pattern, an inner-urban trip. The blue line shows vehicle speed over time and the red line shows the state of charge of the vehicle’s battery.

My second-most-frequent driving pattern is an approximately 50 km trip of nearly an hour duration (Figure 3); it starts in the mostly rural area just outside of Berlin and then I slowly make my way through the crowded streets of Potsdam, and finally there’s some highway driving through Brandenburg. The maximum speed is 120 km/h, and the battery state of charge drops by about 14 percentage points. I take this kind of trip, back and forth, about once per week and it adds up to about 5,000 km per year. 

Figure 3. A typical extra-urban trip (with a portion of urban driving) that I take about once per week. The blue line shows vehicle speed over time and the red line shows the state of charge of the vehicle’s battery.

For both trip types, the range of my vehicle is fully sufficient. Indeed, I typically deplete the battery by only about one-third per week and end up re-charging once every 2 or 3 weeks. Therefore, for most of the year, a vehicle with a smaller battery would satisfy my needs, and that’s fully in line with the findings of our recent ICCT report modeling different electric vehicle configurations and user types.

About twice per year I take a long-distance trip to Southern Germany. This ends up being 550 km of driving one way, most of that on the highway, and speeds get up to 170 km/h. Due to the high highway energy consumption of my vehicle, I do two re-charging stops of about 25 minutes each—barely enough to go to the toilet and eat a snack. At the end, I plug the car into an A/C Wallbox so it can slowly re-charge overnight.

Figure 4. A typical long-distance trip I take about twice per year. The blue line shows vehicle speed over time and the red line shows the state of charge of the vehicle’s battery.

All told, I drive about 10,000 km per year, and this is about 50% urban, 40% extra-urban, and 10% highway. Compared with the WLTP type-approval cycle, I perform less highway and more city driving, and that could explain why my real-world energy consumption is only 12% higher than the official value. According to Green NCAP, for example, my vehicle model has an average energy consumption of 30.2 kWh/100 km for highway driving; this results in an average energy consumption of 22.5 kWh/100 km or 35% higher than the type-approval value.

A large variability in the differences between real-world and type-approval energy consumption of electric cars was also reported in a recent test summary by the German car drivers association ADAC. The ADAC results show that it’s not only personal driving patterns that matter but also the effort a manufacturer puts into optimizing the vehicle toward real-world driving rather than the official test procedure. This, I find, is a good argument for future regulation of real-world energy consumption.

Author

Peter Mock
Europe Managing Director / Regional Lead

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The post What 3 years of driving an electric car taught me about range “serenity” and energy consumption appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

货车和客车在欧洲道路车辆中的占比仅为2%，但它们是交通领域CO₂排放的第二大来源。2021年，重型车CO₂排放在欧洲道路交通领域CO₂排放量中的占比为28%，同年生效的《欧洲气候法案》要求欧盟到2050年实现气候中和，根据欧盟委员会的数据，交通行业需要在2050年前实现较1990年排放水平减排90%才能实现上述气候中和目标。

欧盟委员会于2023年2月14日提出了修订重型车CO₂标准的提案。2024年4月10日，欧洲议会批准了三方达成一致的标准修订议案。随后，欧洲理事会于2024年5月13日正式通过了该修订案，完成了立法程序。

修订前的CO₂标准要求到2025年，大多数新生产货车的排放比2019报告周期排放水平降低15%，到2030年降低30%。修订后的标准维持了到2025年CO₂减排15%的目标，将2030年的减排目标提高到45%，同时引入了2035年减排65%和2040年减排90%的目标。

图2

此次修订扩大了标准法规所涵盖的车辆范围，纳入了更多类型的货车、公交客车、长途客车、挂车及专用作业车，加上此前标准适用的车型，修订后的CO₂标准所涵盖的车型可占2023年重型车总销量的92%。此外，此次标准修订还对可供制造商选择的灵活性合规方案进行了一些调整。

图1 

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Summary

In the first quarter of 2024, the market for zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) grew considerably, despite a contraction in overall HDV sales of 9% compared to the first quarter of 2023. The sales share of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) increased in all three segments—heavy trucks, light and medium trucks, and buses and coaches— compared to the first quarter of 2023. Germany continued to lead in zero-emission HDV sales, accounting for 40% of all sales in the EU-27.

Zero-emission heavy trucks represented more than a 1% share of the market, up from 0.5% at the end of the first quarter in 2023. In the light and medium segment, zero-emission vehicles made up more than 8% of sales in the first quarter of 2024, up from 6% at the end of the first quarter in 2023. Similarly, zero-emission buses accounted for 12% of bus and coach sales in the first quarter of 2024, up from less than 5% at the end of the first quarter of 2023.

Overall market developments

More than 86,000 HDVs, across all powertrain types, were sold in the EU-27 in the first quarter of 2024, a 9% decrease from the same period in 2023. Sales in the three biggest European markets—Germany (25,000), France (15,000), and Italy (9,000)—which together represented 57% of all HDV sales in the European Union (EU)—increased compared to the first quarter of 2023 (27%, 16%, and 9%, respectively), while the Spanish market shrank from 8% to 5%.

The seven top selling HDV brands in the EU represented 90% of all sales in the first quarter of 2024. Mercedes-Benz, the top selling brand (22%), consolidated its market share by an additional 1 percentage point (pp) compared to the first quarter of 2023. It was followed by MAN (15%, +<1pp), Scania (13%, +2pp), Iveco (13%, +1pp), Volvo (12%, -2pp), DAF (10%, -2pp), and Renault (7%, -1pp).

Heavy trucks represented more than 95% of the sales of brands Scania, DAF, Volvo Trucks and Renault Trucks, while IVECO proportionally sold fewer heavy trucks (47%) than light and medium commercial vehicles (35%), and buses and coaches (19%). DAF had the highest share of tractor trucks in its sales mix (74%), followed by Scania (71%) and Volvo (65%). Other manufacturers, which represent 10% of the market, sold mostly light and medium commercial vehicles (43%) as well as buses and coaches (31%).

Figure 1.2. Manufacturer market share by segment

Heavy trucks

With a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes

In the first quarter of 2024, heavy trucks represented 77% of all HDV sales in the EU-27. Of the 67,000 heavy trucks sold in the first quarter, 750 (1.1%) were ZEVs. This is double the share of the first quarter of 2023, when only 500 of the 77,000 (0.6%) heavy trucks sold were ZEVs.

Germany continued to lead in total share of zero-emission heavy truck sales in the EU-27 in the first quarter of 2024 with 15%; France followed with 13%. In comparison, in the first quarter of 2023, sales in Germany represented 23% of all zero-emission heavy truck sales; sales in France were 16%. In the first quarter of 2023, 10% of zero-emission heavy trucks were sold in Spain, however, sales in Spain were less than 1% of the EU-27 total in the first quarter of 2024.

Volvo Trucks continues to consolidate its leading position in the zero-emission heavy trucks market. It had a 54% share of sales in this segment in the first quarter of 2024 (compared to 44% in the first quarter of 2023). Of Volvo’s battery electric heavy trucks sales, 34% are attributable to the 4×2 FH-Series, which made up 20% of all battery electric heavy truck sales, followed by the 4×2 FM Series, which made up 12%.

Mercedes-Benz increased its conventional heavy trucks sales share by 2 percentage points in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, while its share in the zero-emission heavy truck market increased from 8% to 15% in the same period.

Light and medium commercial vehicles

With a gross vehicle weight between 3.5 tonnes and 12 tonnes

In the first quarter of 2024, 11,000 light and medium commercial vehicles were sold in the EU-27. Of these, 8% were ZEVs. There was an 8% dip in total sales compared to the first quarter of 2023, when 12,000 vehicles were sold. However, the number of ZEVs sold increased from 450 to nearly 950 in the first quarter of 2024.

In the first quarter of 2024, Germany had the most sales of zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicles (67% of sales compared to 28% in the first quarter of 2023). France had 11% of zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 38% in in the first quarter of 2023.

Ford continues to lead the zero-emission market in this segment, despite a shrinking market share. In the first quarter of 2024, Ford supplied 40% of all zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicles; at the end of the first quarter of 2023, Ford had supplied more than 50%. Fiat more than doubled its share of all zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicle sales in the past year, supplying 30% by the end of the first quarter of 2024 compared to 12% in the first quarter of 2023.

Buses and coaches

With a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes

Of the 8,850 urban and interurban buses and coaches sold in the first quarter of 2024, 1,100 were ZEVs, a 12% share. City bus registrations in the same quarter amounted to 3,200 units, with 1,100—or 32%—being battery electric.

In the first quarter of 2023, all city buses sold in several countries, including Denmark, Ireland, and the Netherlands, were zero-emission models. In the first quarter of 2024, 1 and 3 conventional diesel buses were sold in Denmark and the Netherlands respectively. In Ireland, diesel bus purchases increased to 40% (60% of bus purchases were battery electric). In France, the sales shares of electric, natural gas, and diesel buses in the first quarter of 2024 were closely split, with natural gas buses accounting for most registrations. In contrast, 100% of the city buses registered in Luxembourg in the first quarter of 2024 were battery electric.

Looking at key market suppliers, Mercedes- Benz increased its market share in the zero-emission bus segment from around 5% in the first quarter of 2023 to nearly 15% by the end of the first quarter of 2024.

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Before joining the ICCT, Sophie worked in communications and fundraising for several international NGOs in Stockholm, Sweden. She holds a bachelor’s degree in political science from the University of Vienna, a bachelor’s in journalism and media management from the University of Applied Sciences Vienna, and a master’s degree in Euroculture from Uppsala University.

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The possible AtlECA includes the territorial seas and exclusive economic zones of Spain, Portugal, France, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, and Greenland, with potential expansion to include the Azores and Madeira archipelagos of Portugal and the Canary Islands of Spain. The results of this study are intended to be a part of a submission to the International Maritime Organization’s Marine Environment Protection Committee on designating the AtlECA, following the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) Annex VI requirements. 

We estimate that the AtlECA designation could lead to significant emission reductions in pollutants. In 2030, if distillate fuel is used to comply with the ECA regulations, this could lead to an 82% reduction in SO_x emissions, a 64% reduction in PM_2.5, and a 36% reduction in black carbon (BC) emissions when compared to a scenario without ECA regulations. NO_x regulation Tier III standards can reduce expected NO_x emissions by about 3% if they apply only to ships built in 2027 or later. Up to 71% NO_x reductions could be achieved by applying Tier III standards to engines on all ships.  

Additionally, we project that if the outermost regions of Portugal and Spain join the AtlECA, air pollution near these islands could be significantly reduced. The projected reductions include 84% in SO_x, 67% in PM_2.5, and 41% in BC emissions if distillate is used as the compliance fuel.  

Based on this analysis, we suggest the Atlantic ECA member states consider the following recommendations: 

• Include the full exclusive economic zones of Spain, Portugal, France, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Iceland, Faroe Islands, and Greenland in the geographic scope of the AtlECA. This would strategically connect the surrounding established or proposed ECAs, creating the largest low-emission shipping zone in the world.  
• Consider including the outermost regions of Portugal (Azores and Madeira) and Spain (Canary Islands) in the geographic scope of the AtlECA. Our analysis shows that 94% of the traffic crossing these islands is already shipping in other existing or proposed Emission Control Areas.  
• Incentivize the use of distillates over ultra-low sulfur fuel oil (ULSFO) or scrubbers for ECA compliance in the national waters of AtlECA member states.  
• Consider restricting the use of scrubbers in the national waters and ports of AtlECA member states to reduce BC and PM and to avoid scrubber discharges.  
• Consider supporting Norway’s suggestion to amend MARPOL to use the “three dates criteria” for the designation of newly built ships subject to Tier III NO_x emission standards.  ‘

The post From concept to impact: Evaluating the potential for emissions reduction in the proposed North Atlantic Emission Control Area under different compliance scenarios appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Speakers

Peter Mock

Europe Managing Director / Regional Lead, ICCT

Zifei Yang

Passenger Vehicle Program Lead, ICCT

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2023年12月18日，欧洲议会和欧洲理事会就新一阶段轻型车和重型车排放标准达成了一致，待议会和理事会正式通过这项新标准后，新标准将替代目前实施的乘用车及厢式货车欧6排放标准（欧盟法规（EC）715/2007），以及重型货车及客车欧VI排放标准（欧盟法规（EC）595/2009）。

欧7标准旨在约束欧盟境内销售车辆的污染排放，标准从车辆、制动系统和轮胎三个方面规定了型式核准认证要求。标准中规定了排放限值及排放相关部件的最低耐久性要求，同时还规定了车载和非车载合规符合性验证的方法要求。

在这篇政策更新简报中，我们将总结欧7法规的关键内容，并将其与欧盟当前的排放标准进行对比。 

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