Market Spotlight - International Council on Clean Transportation https://theicct.org/publication-type/market-spotlight/ Independent research to benefit public health and mitigate climate change Fri, 05 Jul 2024 15:14:47 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.1 https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/favicon-150x150.png Market Spotlight - International Council on Clean Transportation https://theicct.org/publication-type/market-spotlight/ 32 32 Race to Zero: European Heavy Duty Vehicle Market Development Quarterly (January – March 2024) https://theicct.org/publication/race-to-zero-eu-hdv-market-development-q1-2024-june24/ Thu, 20 Jun 2024 22:30:51 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=43563 Analyzes manufacturers’ market readiness to develop and deploy zero-emission trucks and buses in Europe.

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Summary

In the first quarter of 2024, the market for zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) grew considerably, despite a contraction in overall HDV sales of 9% compared to the first quarter of 2023. The sales share of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) increased in all three segments—heavy trucks, light and medium trucks, and buses and coaches— compared to the first quarter of 2023. Germany continued to lead in zero-emission HDV sales, accounting for 40% of all sales in the EU-27.

Zero-emission heavy trucks represented more than a 1% share of the market, up from 0.5% at the end of the first quarter in 2023. In the light and medium segment, zero-emission vehicles made up more than 8% of sales in the first quarter of 2024, up from 6% at the end of the first quarter in 2023. Similarly, zero-emission buses accounted for 12% of bus and coach sales in the first quarter of 2024, up from less than 5% at the end of the first quarter of 2023.

Overall market developments

More than 86,000 HDVs, across all powertrain types, were sold in the EU-27 in the first quarter of 2024, a 9% decrease from the same period in 2023. Sales in the three biggest European markets—Germany (25,000), France (15,000), and Italy (9,000)—which together represented 57% of all HDV sales in the European Union (EU)—increased compared to the first quarter of 2023 (27%, 16%, and 9%, respectively), while the Spanish market shrank from 8% to 5%.

The seven top selling HDV brands in the EU represented 90% of all sales in the first quarter of 2024. Mercedes-Benz, the top selling brand (22%), consolidated its market share by an additional 1 percentage point (pp) compared to the first quarter of 2023. It was followed by MAN (15%, +<1pp), Scania (13%, +2pp), Iveco (13%, +1pp), Volvo (12%, -2pp), DAF (10%, -2pp), and Renault (7%, -1pp).

Heavy trucks represented more than 95% of the sales of brands Scania, DAF, Volvo Trucks and Renault Trucks, while IVECO proportionally sold fewer heavy trucks (47%) than light and medium commercial vehicles (35%), and buses and coaches (19%). DAF had the highest share of tractor trucks in its sales mix (74%), followed by Scania (71%) and Volvo (65%). Other manufacturers, which represent 10% of the market, sold mostly light and medium commercial vehicles (43%) as well as buses and coaches (31%).

Figure 1.2. Manufacturer market share by segment

Heavy trucks

With a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes

In the first quarter of 2024, heavy trucks represented 77% of all HDV sales in the EU-27. Of the 67,000 heavy trucks sold in the first quarter, 750 (1.1%) were ZEVs. This is double the share of the first quarter of 2023, when only 500 of the 77,000 (0.6%) heavy trucks sold were ZEVs.

Germany continued to lead in total share of zero-emission heavy truck sales in the EU-27 in the first quarter of 2024 with 15%; France followed with 13%. In comparison, in the first quarter of 2023, sales in Germany represented 23% of all zero-emission heavy truck sales; sales in France were 16%. In the first quarter of 2023, 10% of zero-emission heavy trucks were sold in Spain, however, sales in Spain were less than 1% of the EU-27 total in the first quarter of 2024.

Volvo Trucks continues to consolidate its leading position in the zero-emission heavy trucks market. It had a 54% share of sales in this segment in the first quarter of 2024 (compared to 44% in the first quarter of 2023). Of Volvo’s battery electric heavy trucks sales, 34% are attributable to the 4×2 FH-Series, which made up 20% of all battery electric heavy truck sales, followed by the 4×2 FM Series, which made up 12%.

Mercedes-Benz increased its conventional heavy trucks sales share by 2 percentage points in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, while its share in the zero-emission heavy truck market increased from 8% to 15% in the same period.

Light and medium commercial vehicles

With a gross vehicle weight between 3.5 tonnes and 12 tonnes

In the first quarter of 2024, 11,000 light and medium commercial vehicles were sold in the EU-27. Of these, 8% were ZEVs. There was an 8% dip in total sales compared to the first quarter of 2023, when 12,000 vehicles were sold. However, the number of ZEVs sold increased from 450 to nearly 950 in the first quarter of 2024.

In the first quarter of 2024, Germany had the most sales of zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicles (67% of sales compared to 28% in the first quarter of 2023). France had 11% of zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 38% in in the first quarter of 2023.

Ford continues to lead the zero-emission market in this segment, despite a shrinking market share. In the first quarter of 2024, Ford supplied 40% of all zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicles; at the end of the first quarter of 2023, Ford had supplied more than 50%. Fiat more than doubled its share of all zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicle sales in the past year, supplying 30% by the end of the first quarter of 2024 compared to 12% in the first quarter of 2023.

Buses and coaches

With a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes

Of the 8,850 urban and interurban buses and coaches sold in the first quarter of 2024, 1,100 were ZEVs, a 12% share. City bus registrations in the same quarter amounted to 3,200 units, with 1,100—or 32%—being battery electric.

In the first quarter of 2023, all city buses sold in several countries, including Denmark, Ireland, and the Netherlands, were zero-emission models. In the first quarter of 2024, 1 and 3 conventional diesel buses were sold in Denmark and the Netherlands respectively. In Ireland, diesel bus purchases increased to 40% (60% of bus purchases were battery electric). In France, the sales shares of electric, natural gas, and diesel buses in the first quarter of 2024 were closely split, with natural gas buses accounting for most registrations. In contrast, 100% of the city buses registered in Luxembourg in the first quarter of 2024 were battery electric.

Looking at key market suppliers, Mercedes- Benz increased its market share in the zero-emission bus segment from around 5% in the first quarter of 2023 to nearly 15% by the end of the first quarter of 2024.

Technology focus: Zero-emission truck purchase subsidies in the EU

Looking beyond quarterly sales

Governments can implement several types of policy measures to support the development of the ZEV market. Due to the high purchase cost of ZEVs, and because most transport operators have low access to capital, direct purchase subsidies can be an effective measure to boost ZEV sales in the early adoption phase, though this is not a sustainable long-term measure.

Table 1 details the purchase subsidy programs available for zero-emission trucks across European countries, together with relevant provisions. As of May 2024, 11 countries in the EU-27, as well as Norway and the United Kingdom, offer direct purchase subsidy schemes to transport operators. These incentives typically depend on factors including company size, vehicle type, and whether a previous vehicle has been scrapped. France has agreed on a subsidy scheme for 2024 that has not yet started as of May 2024. Notably, France and Belgium subsidize the acquisition of battery-electric vehicles only. Germany, the largest market for these vehicles within the EU-27, discontinued its subsidy program (KsNI) in February 2024, and is allocating its budget to other supporting mechanisms, including the build-out of a comprehensive charging infrastructure network.

Beyond subsidies, other financial incentives such as comprehensive tax benefits are available in countries like Belgium, Denmark, France, and Spain, which could motivate companies to invest in ZEVs. Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, and Hungary offer CO2– based road tolls for diesel trucks and a simultaneous exemption or reduction for zero-emission heavy vehicles, following the Eurovignette Directive. Additional sub-national subsidies may also exist.

 

Country Implementing agency Program Funding available  and time window Eligibilitya Subsidy amountb Link to more information
Austria The Austrian Research Promotion Agency (FFG) Emissionsfreie Nutzfahrzeuge und Infrastruktur (ENIN) €365 million All zero-emission commercial vehicles (N2 and N3) Up to 80% of the list price here
Austria Kommunalkredit Public Consulting (KPC) Umweltförderung KPC NA M3, N2, N3 and specialized ZEVs Up to €130,000 here
Belgium (Flanders only) Flanders Agency for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (VLAIO) Batterij elektrische vrachtwagen

€25–€35 million for the entire

Energy premium program

 Fully electric commercial vehicles (N2 and N3) with purchase cost up to €400,000, capped at two trucks per company 24% to 32% of the purchase cost, depending on company size here
Croatia

Ministry of Environmental

Protection and EnergyEfficiency

 Program sufinanciranja elektricnih vozila 2022   All zero-emission HDVs (M2, M3, N2, N3) Up to €53,000 here
Finland

Finnish Transport and

Communications Agency (Traficom)

   €2.5 million through 2025 Hybrid vans and trucks €6,000 to €50,000 here
France

Environment and Energy

Management Agency

(ADEME)

 Appel à projet

€130 million between 2024 and December 2028 (funding through energy saving

certificates)

 Battery-electric HDVs 2,100 HDVs will be funded with the available budget here
Germany Currently no purchase subsidy available (KsNI program phased out in February 2024)  
Ireland Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII)

Zero Emissions Heavy Duty

Vehicle Purchase Grant

Scheme

 €3.5 million All zero-emission HDVs (M2, M3, N2, N3) 30%– 60% of the cost differential with a baseline diesel vehicle, depending on company size here
Italy

Ministero delle

Infrastrutture e della

Mobilità Sostenibili

 DPCM €20 million N2 vehicles up to and excluding 12 tons, conditional on scrapping a Euro 4 or below vehicle €14,000 here
Malta Transport Malta Scheme for more sustainable transport €15 million Eligibility determined on a case-by-case basis 40% of the selling price, capped at €70,000 per vehicle here
Netherlands Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO) AanZET €45 million All zero-emission trucks (N2, N3) Up to 29% of the purchase cost or €115,200 here
Norway Enova Heavy zero-emission vehicles grant N/A, monthly support rounds starting April 15, 2024 All HDVs over 4,250 kg, competition based on the amount of support provided per kilogram of CO2 reduced Up to 60% of the cost difference compared to a diesel vehicle here
Poland

National Fund for

Environmental Protection and Water Management

 Support for the purchase or leasing of zero-emission vehicles of the N2 and N3 categories €234 million All zero-emission heavy commercial vehicles (N2, N3) 30% to 60% of purchase cost based on company size, with a limit of €88,000 (N2) to €132,000 (N3) here
Sweden Swedish Transport Agency Klimatpremien NA Electric light trucks and buses For light trucks, up to 30% of the eligible cost, not exceeding ~€4,550. For buses, 40% of the difference with the closest diesel bus for private companies and 20% for public transport authorities here
United Kingdom Department for Transport (DfT) Plug-in Van and Truck Grant (PIVG) 7.5M € through March 2025 Heavy commercial vehicles (N2, N3) emitting at least 50% less CO2 than an equivalent Euro VI vehicle and featuring a zero-emission range of 60 km, limited to vehicle models registered by OEMs Up to €29,000 for large trucks (100 grants available), up to €18,500 for light trucks (100 grants available). If grants are exhausted or a customer has exceeded their limit (10 and 5 respectively), then the large van grant of €5,800 per vehicle is awarded here
Note: There are currently no purchase subsidies available in: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, or Spain. The incentive schemes available for zero-emission HDV purchase are regularly being revisited and revised. The most up to date information can be found on the implementing agency’s website.

a N2/N3=goods vehicles with weight between 3.5 and 12 tonnes/exceeding 12 tonnes. M2/M3=buses with weight up to/exceeding 5 tonnes.

b All values are converted to Euro

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

A zero-emission vehicle is any vehicle whose propulsion system produces zero combustion emissions, such as a dedicated battery-electric, fuel cell-electric, or other motor that is not driven by combustion. 

A heavy-duty vehicle is a commercial vehicle, intended for the transport of passengers or freight, with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tons. 

A heavy truck is a truck with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tons. 

A light and medium truck is a truck or van with a gross vehicle weight between 3.5–12 tons. 

A city bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tons that is used exclusively in urban environments. 

An interurban bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tons that is used in both urban and regional environments. 

A coach is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tons that is used exclusively in regional environments. 

All data on the sheets for heavy trucks, light and medium trucks, buses and coaches, and the technology focus on zero-emission vehicle manufacturers by region are supplied by Dataforce. The exception is the battery size and chemistries in Figures 1.4 and 2.4 which were derived from manufacturer websites and press releases. All countries from the EU-27, except Bulgaria, are covered here. 

*This market spotlight was updated on July 3, 2024

The post Race to Zero: European Heavy Duty Vehicle Market Development Quarterly (January – March 2024) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

]]> Zero-emission bus and truck market in the United States: A 2022–2023 update https://theicct.org/publication/zero-emission-bus-and-truck-market-in-the-us-2022-2023-update-june24/ Tue, 18 Jun 2024 20:00:33 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=43554 The U.S. zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle market experienced significant growth from 2021 to 2023, but still lags China and the EU in overall adoption.

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Overview

Registrations of new zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (ZE-HDVs) in the United States rose from 200 in 2021 to 1,600 in 2023. Over the same 2-year period, total new HDV registrations grew from around 490,000 to 520,000, or 5.8%. The share of ZE-HDVs in all HDV registrations remained low but rose from less than 0.10% in 2021 to 0.16% in 2022, and then to 0.30% in 2023. The heavy-duty truck segment contributed the most to the increase in the number of new ZE-HDV registrations. Despite this recent growth, the United States is still far behind the markets in China and the European Union: In 2023, there were 11,000 new ZE-HDVs sold in the 27 EU Member States and more than 110,000 sold in China.

Figure 1. Number and share of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle registrations in the United States by vehicle type

In 2022 and 2023, medium- and heavy-duty trucks were 96% of the total internal combustion engine (ICE) HDV market in the United States. In the total ZE-HDV market, trucks are not as large a share and were 54% of the market in 2022 and 63% in 2023. That there are more buses in the ZE-HDV market shows that zero-emission trucks are in an earlier stage of development. While the registrations data we accessed for this analysis showed that all new ZE-HDVs registered in 2022 and 2023 were battery electric, sales data we obtained from separate sources shows that sales of hydrogen fuel-cell trucks occurred in 2023. That these are not in the registration data we accessed could reflect the limits of collection methods and scope. Another explanation is that sales data are not directly comparable with registration data; vehicles produced and sold are not always immediately registered and put in operation.

Figure 2. New heavy-duty vehicle registrations in the United States by vehicle type and powertrain

Buses

Registrations of zero-emission buses grew from around 140 in 2021 to 360 in 2022, and then to around 590 in 2023. In 2023, zero-emission buses were 2.8% of all new bus registrations in the United States—the highest market penetration among HDV segments.

The two largest manufacturer groups of ICE-powered buses in the United States are Traton and Daimler, and these two groups are also becoming dominant players in the zero-emission bus market. Traton subsidiary Navistar manufactures battery electric school buses under the IC Bus brand and Daimler subsidiary Thomas Built manufactures battery electric Saf-T-Liner C2 Jouley school buses. Registrations of electric school buses have propelled Traton and Daimler past all-electric bus manufacturers Lion Electric and BYD, which took third and fourth place, respectively, in the U.S. zero-emission bus market in both 2022 and 2023.

The two largest manufacturer groups of ICE-powered buses in the United States are Traton and Daimler, and these two groups are also becoming dominant players in the zero-emission bus market. Traton subsidiary Navistar manufactures battery electric school buses under the IC Bus brand and Daimler subsidiary Thomas Built manufactures battery electric Saf-T-Liner C2 Jouley school buses. Registrations of electric school buses have propelled Traton and Daimler past all-electric bus manufacturers Lion Electric and BYD, which took third and fourth place, respectively, in the U.S. zero-emission bus market in both 2022 and 2023.

Figure 3. Internal combustion engine and zero-emission bus registration shares in the United States by manufacturer group

New zero-emission buses sold in the United States in 2022 and 2023 have a mix of lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery chemistries. BYD relies solely on LFP, while Blue Bird/Lion Electric uses NMC batteries. Proterra uses a mix of NMC and lithium titanate oxide, a less common battery chemistry. Battery capacities range from just above 100 kWh for short-distance shuttle buses to over 400 kWh for urban transit bus models.
Figure 4. Sales of zero-emission buses in the United States by model in 2022 and 2023 (combined) and by battery capacity

Trucks

From 2021 to 2022, new zero-emission heavy-duty truck registrations grew from 33 to 190, and new zero-emission medium-duty truck registrations surged from the single digits to 240. From 2022 to 2023, zero-emission heavy-duty truck registrations quadrupled to 760 and zero-emission medium-duty truck registrations remained about the same as in 2022. As a result of the recent market growth, zero-emission heavy-duty trucks were 0.28% all new heavy-duty truck registrations and zero-emission medium-duty trucks were 0.10% of all new medium-duty truck registrations in 2023.

The composition of classes in the ICE truck market remained largely the same between 2022 and 2023, but the makeup of the zero-emission market changed. Class 8 tractor trucks and Class 4–6 rigid trucks had the highest share of both ICE and zero-emission registrations. More than 70% of zero-emission trucks registered in 2023 were Class 8 tractors. Class 7 and Class 8 rigid trucks together were 18% (2022) and 19% (2023) of ICE truck registrations but only 8% (2022) and 9% (2023) of zero-emission truck registrations. There were no zero-emission Class 7 tractor trucks registered in 2022 or 2023.

Figure 5. New medium- and heavy-duty truck registrations in the United States by vehicle class and powertrain

More than 90% of zero-emission medium-duty truck registrations in 2022 had no manufacturer information listed in the data we accessed; ICE industry leaders Ford, Daimler, and Traton, which owns Navistar, were shown in this limited data to have low or nonexistent zero-emission registration shares. In 2023, more than half of registrations had no manufacturer information. Nonetheless, Daimler, Traton, and Paccar collectively accounted for 46% of the zero-emission medium-duty truck market, and all-electric manufacturer Lion Electric was responsible for 3% of registrations.

Figure 6. Internal combustion engine and zero-emission medium-duty truck registration shares in the United States by manufacturer group

Different manufacturers chose to use LFP and NMC batteries in their vehicles, with capacity ranging from under 100 kWh to 175 kWh.

Figure 7. Sales of zero-emission medium-duty trucks in the United States by model in 2022 and 2023 (combined) and by battery capacity

There was no manufacturer information available in the data for 38% of zero-emission heavy-duty truck registrations in 2022 and 19% of the registrations in 2023. Nikola began production and delivery of its Class 8 Tre tractor trucks in 2022, and registrations with missing manufacturer information may be attributable to this company. Nonetheless, in the heavy-duty truck market, the four largest ICE manufacturer groups in the data were Daimler, Paccar, Volvo Trucks, and Traton, and they collectively represented more than 95% of the market in both 2022 and 2023. The top three manufacturer groups were also active in the zero-emission market. In 2022, 37% of zero-emission heavy-duty truck registrations were Volvo Trucks products, 10% were Daimler, and 5% were Paccar. In 2023, the share of Daimler products increased to 42% of all zero-emission heavy-duty truck registrations; Volvo Trucks was in second place with 19%, and Paccar had the third-largest share with 6%. Tesla entered the zero-emission heavy-duty truck market with its Semi model, which accounted for 9% of registrations in 2022. Chinese manufacturer BYD had 9% registrations in 2023, outperforming both Paccar and Tesla.

Figure 8. Internal combustion engine and zero-emission heavy-duty truck registrations share in the United States by manufacturer group

There are a wide range of battery sizes in zero-emission heavy-duty trucks. Smaller batteries (100 kWh) were mostly found in hydrogen fuel cell truck models like Nikola’s hydrogen Tre model and Hyundai’s Xcient, as the primary energy for fuel-cell electric trucks comes from onboard hydrogen tanks. The largest-capacity batteries were found in battery electric long-haul tractor trucks like Nikola’s Tre model and Tesla’s Semi. Between the two extremes are drayage and regional-haul truck models, which use a mix of LFP and NMC battery chemistries.

Figure 9. Sales of zero-emission heavy-duty trucks in the United States by model in 2022 and 2023 (combined) and by battery capacity

Definitions and data sources

Definitions  

Zero-emission vehicles: Any vehicle with a propulsion system that produces zero combustion emissions, such as a dedicated battery electric, fuel cell electric, or other motor that is not driven by combustion. 

Heavy-duty vehicles: All vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating above 14,001 lb, which correspond to Classes 4–8 in the National Highway Administration’s vehicle class definition. 

Buses: All Class 4–8 buses and coaches. 

Heavy-duty trucks: Class 8 trucks with a gross vehicle weight rating greater than 33,000 lb. 

Medium-duty trucks and vans: Class 4–7 trucks and vans with a gross vehicle weight rating of 14,001–33,000 lb. 

Class of truck

Gross vehicle weight rating (lb)

Gross vehicle weight rating (kg)

Classification in this Market Spotlight

4

14,001–16,000

6,350–7,257

Medium-duty trucks

5

16,001–19,500

7,258–8,845

  

6

19,501–26,000

8,846–11,793

  

7

26,001–33,000

11,794–14,968

  

8

33,001+

14,968+

Heavy-duty trucks

Data sources  

All zero-emission vehicle sales data and battery capacity data were sourced from EV-Volumes, https://ev-volumes.com/. Vehicle registration data were supplied by S&P Global Limited; Copyright © S&P Global Limited 2024. All rights reserved. 

Individual vehicle model information was retrieved from the following:  

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]]> Electric vehicle market and policy developments in U.S. states, 2023 https://theicct.org/publication/ev-ldv-us-major-markets-monitor-2023-june24/ Tue, 04 Jun 2024 04:01:56 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=42507 This market spotlight summarizes key metrics related to electric vehicle market growth at the state level through 2023, including annual sales and sales shares, charging infrastructure deployment, state purchase incentives, and model availability.

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In 2023, sales of new electric light-duty vehicles in the United States reached about 1.4 million, up from nearly 1 million in 2022, resulting in a sales share of about 9%. Across the country, the electric vehicle market has grown at different rates in different states. This market spotlight summarizes key metrics related to electric vehicle market growth at the state level through 2023, including annual sales and sales shares, charging infrastructure deployment, state purchase incentives, and model availability.

Figure 1 summarizes electric vehicle (EV) uptake (both battery-electric and plug-in hybrid), charging infrastructure deployment, battery-electric vehicle (BEV) purchase incentives, and EV model availability in 2023 in the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, ordered from highest to lowest EV sales share. Markets categorized as “ZEV states” (solid bars) have adopted California’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) regulations, while those marked as “non-ZEV states” (hashed bars) have not. As of the end of 2023, 17 states and the District of Columbia had adopted California’s ZEV regulations. As shown in the figure, 15 of the 20 markets with the highest electric vehicle sales shares in 2023 were all ZEV states. The top 10 markets (nine states and the District of Columbia) also had EV sales shares greater than 11% and are all ZEV states.

Figure 1. Electric vehicle sales share, charging infrastructure deployment, purchase incentives, and model availability in U.S. states and the District of Columbia, 2023

Areas with high EV sales shares tended to have a high concentration of public and workplace chargers. The 10 markets with the highest EV sales share had close to 980 public and workplace chargers per million residents, on average. All ZEV states had close to 780 chargers per million residents on average, while non-ZEV states had around 320. The top 10 markets with the highest number of chargers per million residents in 2023—California, the District of Columbia, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Massachusetts, Maryland, Vermont, Rhode Island, and Maine—have all implemented ZEV regulations. These markets also had more than 2 times as many chargers per million residents compared to the non-ZEV state average.

Figure 1 also shows that most ZEV states offered purchase incentives for BEVs, whereas non-ZEV states did not. The 10 markets with the highest EV sales shares have all adopted ZEV regulations, and nine offered BEV purchase incentives. Four of these markets also offered additional purchase incentives to low-income consumers. Fourteen of the 18 markets with ZEV regulations offered BEV purchase incentives with an average value of around $2,000. Three of the 33 non-ZEV states (Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Texas) offered purchase incentives in 2023 but these programs made only 500 to 3,000 rebates available, despite these markets being among the largest in terms of total light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales. Thus, the incentives for these three states are not shown in the figure.

Figure 2. Electric vehicle sales shares of new vehicles and model availability in U.S. states and the District of Columbia, 2023

The connection of ZEV regulations and model availability follows a similar trend. All ZEV states had, on average, 60 models available compared to 46 models in non-ZEV states. Figure 2 illustrates the relationship between state-level model availability and EV uptake for the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. The bubble size is proportional to the 2023 new electric vehicle sales in each state, and the color indicates ZEV states (green) and non-ZEV states (purple). The figure shows that states with the highest number of EV models tended to have the highest EV sales and sales shares. Two thirds of ZEV states had 60 or more models available and sales shares of 7% or greater. Six of the top 10 markets by EV sales (California, New York, New Jersey, Washington, Colorado, Massachusetts), representing about 50% of U.S. electric vehicle sales, are ZEV states with 74 or more models available. The states with the fewest models available tended to have comparatively fewer EV sales and lower sales shares.

Figure 2. Electric vehicle sales shares in California, other ZEV states, and non-ZEV states, 2023

There are some exceptions to the relationships observed between ZEV regulation adoption, EV model availability, and high EV sales. Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Illinois are non-ZEV states with relatively high EV model availability. These four states are among the top six largest LDV markets in the country in terms of annual sales, and therefore are more likely to have more models available compared to states with lower annual sales. The LDV markets in these states were 11 to 22 times larger than those of Delaware, Maine, Rhode Island, and Vermont, and they had about twice the number of EV models available. Delaware, the District of Columbia, Maine, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Vermont have adopted ZEV regulations but model availability in these states is close to the average of all states. The LDV markets in these states are relatively small and thus are more likely to have fewer EV models available than states with relatively higher populations and total LDV sales. However, compared to EV model availability in non-ZEV states with similar total LDV sales, such as Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyoming, these ZEV states had 1.3 to 13 times the EV sales shares of the non-ZEV states, and 1.3 to 7.5 more models available.

Overall, EV sales shares in ZEV states in 2023 were higher than non-ZEV states, as shown in Figure 3. California had the highest EV market share in 2023 with a 26.4% sales share. When California is excluded, the EV sales share of total LDV sales in ZEV states was around 12.0%, twice the percentage observed in non-ZEV states of around 6.1%.

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

Electric vehicles (EVs): In this market spotlight, EVs include both battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).

Model availability: Includes models that automakers offered in the market in 2023 with more than 20 new sales.

California’s ZEV regulations: These regulations, which can be adopted by other states via provisions in the Clean Air Act, include the Advanced Clean Cars (ACC) regulation for model years 2015–2025 and the Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II) regulation for model years 2026–2035. The implementation year of ZEV regulations adopted in other states varies. More information can be found on this map (https://theicct.org/viz-us-state-clean-vehicle-standards-june24) that tracks states’ adoption and implementation year of California’s ZEV regulations for light-duty and medium- and heavy-duty vehicles.

Data sources: Electric vehicle sales information is taken from the Alliance for Automotive Innovation’s Electric Vehicle Sales Dashboard, https://www.autosinnovate. org/EVDashboard. Public and workplace charger data is from the Alternative Fueling Station Locator run by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Alternative Fuels Data Center, https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/find/nearest. Purchase incentive data also comes from the Alternative Fuels Data Center, https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/state. Estimated 2023 population information for each state is sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau, https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2020-2023/state/totals/. Model availability data is from the Automakers Dashboard, part of Atlas Public Policy’s online EV Hub, https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/automakers-dashboard/.

Purchase incentives: Rebates for PHEV purchases are excluded from Figure 1 because PHEV sales accounted for about one fifth of total EV sales in 2023 and several states have phased on PHEV rebates. For example, Massachusetts no longer offered a PHEV rebate as of July 2023, New Jersey has not offered a PHEV point-of-sale incentive since January 2023, and Maryland did not qualify PHEVs for an excise tax credit starting in July 2023.

U.S. state clean vehicle standards

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]]> Cabotagem no Brasil em 2021 https://theicct.org/publication/cabotagem-no-brasil-em-2021-mar24/ Wed, 27 Mar 2024 04:18:12 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=39948 Destaca as principais commodities transportadas por cabotagem no Brasil e as entidades envolvidas no setor para explorar o potencial de sincronizar esforços de descarbonização e facilitar a realização das emissões líquidas zero nacionais.

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Como muitos países, o Brasil restringe a navegação entre portos domésticos à entidades nacionais. Apenas empresas brasileiras de navegação (EBNs) podem se envolver na cabotagem.1 Em meados de 2023, a Agência Nacional de Transportes Aquaviários (ANTAQ) contabilizou 49 empresas registradas como EBNs que operavam navios na cabotagem.2 Aqui destacamos aspectos do mercado em 2021, quando os registros informam que havia 185 navios na frota de cabotagem do Brasil; estes eram principalmente barcaças, manuseadores de espias (embarcações que operam no descarregamento do petróleo das instalações de produção e armazenamento para os navios petroleiros e destes para as monoboias), porta-contêineres e navios-tanque. Cerca de 60% da capacidade total de transporte estava associada à indústria de petróleo e gás. Para todos os segmentos, algumas empresas detinham a maior parte da frota e das operações.

1Lei nº 9.432, de 8 de janeiro de 1997, https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/leis/l9432.htm.

2 Ver detalhes das fontes de dados no final deste documento.

.

Tonelagem de 2011 a 2021

Os granéis líquidos e gasosos representaram cerca de 77% da tonelagem total de cabotagem no Brasil entre 2011 e 2021, ao passo que os granéis sólidos totalizaram cerca de 12% da tonelagem, a carga conteinerizada, 7%, e a carga geral, 3%. Nesse período, a tonelagem de granéis líquidos e gasosos cresceu 53%; a tonelagem de granéis sólidos, 7%; e a tonelagem de carga geral, 10%. A tonelagem de carga conteinerizada foi a que mais aumentou, 230%.

Granéis líquidos e gasosos

Do total de granéis líquidos e gasosos transportados, 98,6% eram combustíveis minerais, óleos minerais e produtos de sua destilação. O restante eram produtos químicos orgânicos (0,6%), produtos químicos e substâncias inorgânicos (0,4%), e bebidas, licores e vinagre (0,2%). A maior parte provinha de plataformas offshore de extração de petróleo na Zona Econômica Exclusiva (ZEE) brasileira, e os principais destinos eram os estados de Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo, na Região Sudeste, que abrigam grandes refinarias de petróleo.3 Dez EBNs possuíam navios para transporte de granéis líquidos e gasosos, sendo que a Petrobras Transporte S.A.—Transpetro detinha 68% da frota (26 navios) e 93% da capacidade total de transporte nesse segmento. A Empresa de Navegação Elcano S.A. detinha 16% da frota (seis navios) e 3% da capacidade total, enquanto a Flumar Transportes de Químicos e Gases Ltda. detinha 5% da frota (dois navios) e 3% da capacidade total. Outras empresas tinham menos de 1%.

3 Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, Balanço Energético Nacional 2022: Ano Base 2021 [Brazilian Energy Balance 2022: Year 2021] (Rio de Janeiro, 2022), https://www.epe.gov.br/sites-pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/PublicacoesArquivos/publicacao-675/topico-638/BEN2022.pdf.

Granéis sólidos

A cabotagem de granéis sólidos, fortemente ligada ao setor da mineração, teve como principais produtos minérios (91% do total de toneladas transportadas), sal (6%) e combustíveis minerais sólidos (1%). O transporte de granéis sólidos por cabotagem está concentrado no norte do Brasil, carregando principalmente bauxita, o terceiro recurso natural mais abundante no país.

Quatro empresas atuavam na cabotagem de granéis sólidos: a Elcano S.A detinha 50% da frota (quatro navios) e 56% da capacidade total de transporte; a Lyra Navegação Marítima detinha 25% da frota (dois navios) e 10% da capacidade de transporte; a Hidrovias do Brasil detinha 13% da frota (um navio) e 23% da capacidade total de transporte; e a Norsul detinha 13% da frota (um navio) e 10% da capacidade de transporte. Como o transporte de bauxita é baseado em contratos de longo prazo e em uma frota específica, há pouca concorrência para as EBNs que operam nesse mercado.

Carga conteinerizada

Três EBNs, cada uma com seis navios registrados, atuavam nesse segmento e colaboravam para oferecer múltiplos serviços: Aliança Navegação e Logística, Log-In Logística Intermodal e Mercosul Line. A Aliança detinha 44% da capacidade de transporte, seguida pela Log-In (30%) e pela Mercosul Line (26%). Todas são subsidiárias de corporações internacionais. A Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) detém participação majoritária na Log-in Logística Intermodal, a Aliança faz parte da AP Moller – Maersk, e a Mercosul Line integra o Grupo CMA CGM. Essas EBNs oferecem operações feeder que transferem cargas estrangeiras para importação ou exportação, parte importante dos serviços de cabotagem. Seis produtos representaram 51% do total de toneladas de carga conteinerizada relacionada à cabotagem; somados a outros 14 produtos, eles representaram 80% do total. O transporte de cargas conteinerizadas está mais distribuído pelo Brasil que o dos demais tipos de carga. Os principais pontos de origem e destino estão em todas as regiões ao longo da costa.

Carga geral

Desde 2011, a participação da carga geral na tonelagem total de cabotagem no Brasil vem diminuindo constantemente. Dois itens representam mais de 90% da cabotagem de carga geral: produtos siderúrgicos (70%) e celulose (22%), principal matéria-prima para a fabricação de papel. Produtos florestais, como madeira e carvão, são o terceiro item mais comum, mas representam apenas 3% do total de toneladas transportadas. Sete navios (de um total de dez) e duas EBNs responderam por 99% da capacidade de transporte: a Tranship Tranportes Marítimos Ltda. detinha cinco navios e 24% da capacidade de transporte, enquanto a Norsul possuía dois navios e 75% da capacidade de transporte. As principais origens e destinos da cabotagem de carga geral estão associadas a produtos siderúrgicos transportados do Espírito Santo (Região Sudeste) para Santa Catarina (Região Sul); produtos florestais e celulose transportados da Bahia (Nordeste) para o Espírito Santo (Sudeste); e produtos siderúrgicos do Ceará (Nordeste) para São Paulo (Sudeste).

Investimento em descarbonização

O programa BR do Mar, incorporado na Lei nº 14.301/2022, atualizou a legislação para aumentar a oferta e qualidade dos serviços de cabotagem no Brasil bem como promover a competitividade das EBNs, especialmente no segmento de cargas conteinerizadas.4 Além disso, a empresa que possui e opera a maior parte das embarcações em atuação na cabotagem no Brasil, a Transpetro, pretende reduzir em 11% as emissões de seus navios e investir R$ 64 milhões em esforços de descarbonização até 2027.5 Entre seus projetos planejados, a empresa lista revestimentos de alta tecnologia no casco dos navios para prevenir incrustações por organismos marinhos (reduzindo assim o consumo de combustível e as emissões de gases de efeito estufa); o emprego de algoritmos avançados para identificar as rotas de navegação mais eficientes; a otimização da combustão do motor principal; e o uso de misturas de biocombustíveis.6 Ademais, as principais companhias internacionais de transporte de contêineres que controlam ou possuem empresas em operação na cabotagem no Brasil divulgaram metas de sustentabilidade. Esses objetivos incluem a descarbonização de suas cadeias de abastecimento globais. A Tabela 1 exibe as metas de descarbonização divulgadas pelas empresas.

Tabela 1. Metas de descarbonização das principais empresas internacionais de transporte de contêineres e suas subsidiárias brasileiras.

Corporação internacional

EBN subsidiária

Metas de descarbonização relacionadas ao transporte marítimo internacional

Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)

Log-In

• Atuar ao longo da cadeia de valor da MSC para promover os investimentos necessários ao alcance da neutralidade de carbono em todas as operações, desenvolver soluções de apoio logístico e focar na eficiência energética. 

•Trabalhar com as partes interessadas para promover o uso de combustíveis alternativos, incluindo a infraestrutura e os sistemas de distribuição necessários.

AP Moller – Maersk

Aliança

• Meta de descarbonização para 2030 em conformidade com a estratégia de 1,5º C da Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) para obter reduções absolutas de emissões entre 35% e 50% a partir da linha de base de 2020. 

•Meta de atingir a neutralidade de carbono até 2040 em todos os âmbitos e negócios.

Grupo CMA CGM

Mercosul Line

• Em seu relatório de Responsabilidade Social Empresarial de 2022, a empresa afirmou o objetivo de alcançar a neutralidade climática para a Mercosul Line até 2050, tendo pelo menos 10% de combustíveis alternativos em sua matriz energética até 2023 e atingindo 100% de eletricidade renovável em armazéns logísticos até 2025. 

•Buscar iniciativas que incluam usar combustíveis alternativos em navios e projetar embarcações com maior eficiência energética.

Como a frota de cabotagem do Brasil transporta principalmente materiais para a indústria de petróleo e gás, as estratégias para descarbonizar o transporte marítimo nacional exigirão a participação e o apoio desse setor. Uma análise recente mostrou que navios de abastecimento e porta-contêineres são as classes de embarcações responsáveis pela maior parte das emissões na ZEE brasileira.7 Ademais, o envolvimento das empresas que operam no segmento de navios de abastecimento e porta-contêineres será crucial para a implementação de medidas nacionais de descarbonização.

4 Lei nº 14.301, de 7 de janeiro de 2022, https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2019-2022/2022/lei/l14301.htm.
5 Transpetro, “Transpetro investe em Eficiência Energética e Descarbonização da sua Frota,” news release, 23 ago. 2023, https://transpetro.com.br/transpetro-institucional/noticias/transpetro-investe-em-eficiencia-energetica-e-descarbonizacao-da-sua-frota.htm.
6 Transpetro, Relatório de sustentabilidade 2022, https://sustentabilidade.petrobras.com.br.
7 Francielle Carvalho, Recommendations to Develop a Brazilian Maritime National Action Plan (Washington, DC: International Council on Clean Transportation, 2023), https://theicct.org/publication/recommendation-to-develop-a-brazilian-maritime-national-action-plan-aug23/.

Data sources and methodology

As informações apresentadas nas figuras foram obtidas nos bancos de dados da ANTAQ. Essa agência é responsável por regular, supervisionar e fiscalizar as atividades de prestação de serviços de transporte aquaviário e de exploração da infraestrutura portuária e aquaviária. Duas bases de dados da ANTAQ foram consultadas em abril e maio de 2023: Estatístico Aquaviário e Navegação Marítima – Frota Geral – Analítica.

Os sites das empresas de navegação também foram consultados, mas, quando houve divergência entre as bases de dados da ANTAQ e os relatórios das empresas, priorizaram-se os dados da ANTAQ. Por exemplo, existem diferenças entre os dados da frota de porta-contêineres nas bases da ANTAQ e as informações fornecidas pelas três EBNs em seus websites. Para a frota de carga geral, também identificamos diferenças entre os dados da ANTAQ e os das empresas. A base da ANTAQ contém informações sobre embarcações de carga geral que se misturam com barcaças que podem não estar operando no setor de carga geral. Por exemplo, embora a frota da Tranship esteja incluída na base de dados de carga geral da ANTAQ, a empresa atua mais no setor de petróleo e gás com barcaças de convés aberto.8 Os dados da ANTAQ indicam que as empresas do segmento de carga geral operam com barcaças de convés aberto destinadas ao transporte de cargas especiais e não de carga geral; algumas dessas barcaças estão associadas à indústria de petróleo e gás. O site da Norsul informa que a empresa atua no segmento de carga geral com uma frota de barcaças e rebocadores destinados ao transporte de celulose e produtos siderúrgicos.9 Assim, para assegurar a consistência com os demais segmentos de transporte de cabotagem apresentados nesta análise, todos os dados apresentados nas figuras foram obtidos na base da ANTAQ.

A propriedade das EBNs foi obtida das seguintes fontes:

  • Michele Labrut, “Log-In Logistica Accept MSC Takeover Offer,” Seatrade Maritime News, 23 dez. 2021, https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/ containers/log-logistica-accept-msc-takeover-offer.
  • “Aliança—A Maersk Company,” acesso em jun. 2023, https://www.alianca.com.br/a-alianca.
  • “Especialistas em Cabotagem e Logística,” Mercosul Line, acesso em jun. 2023, https://www.mercosul-line.com.br/.

 

8 “Frota,” Tranship, acesso em abr. 2023, http://www.tstranship.com.br/frota.html. 

9 “Navegação – Cabotagem e Longo Curso,” Norsul, acesso em jun. 2023, https://www.norsul.com/servicos/navegacao/.

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]]> Coastal shipping in Brazil in 2021 https://theicct.org/publication/coastal-shipping-in-brazil-in-2021-mar24/ Wed, 27 Mar 2024 04:01:33 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=38897 Highlights the principal commodities transported through cabotage in Brazil and the entities involved in this sector to explore the potential to synchronize decarbonization efforts and facilitate achieving national net-zero emissions.

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Like many countries, Brazil restricts shipping between domestic ports to domestic entities. Only Brazilian Navigation Companies, Empresas Brasileiras de Navegação (EBNs), can engage in cabotage.1 In mid-2023, Brazil’s National Agency of Waterway Transportation (Agência Nacional de Transportes Aquaviários or ANTAQ) showed 49 companies registered as EBNs that operate ships in cabotage.2 Here we highlight aspects of the market in 2021, when records show there were 185 ships in Brazil’s cabotage fleet; these were mainly barges, line handlers (vessels that unload oil from production and storage facilities to tankers, and from tankers to monobuoys), container ships, and tankers. About 60% of total transportation capacity was associated with the oil and gas industry. For all segments, a few companies owned most of the fleet and operations.

1 Lei No. 9.432, de 8 de janeiro de 1997, https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/leis/l9432.htm.
2 See details of data sources.

Tonnage from 2011 to 2021

Liquid and gaseous bulk was about 77% of total cabotage tonnage in Brazil between 2011 and 2021, while solid bulk made up about 12% of tonnage, containerized cargo was 7%, and general cargo was 3%. Over this time, the tonnage of liquid and gaseous bulk grew by 53%, solid bulk tonnage grew by 7%, containerized cargo tonnage grew the most, by 230%, and general cargo tonnage grew by 10%.

Liquid and gaseous bulk

Of the liquid and gaseous bulk tonnes transported, 98.6% were mineral fuels, mineral oils, and products of their distillation. The remainder was organic chemicals (0.6%), inorganic chemicals and substances (0.4%), and beverages, liquor, and vinegar (0.2%). Most of this comes from offshore oil extraction platforms in Brazil’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and the main destinations are the Southeast Region states of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, which are home to major oil refineries.3 Ten EBNs owned ships for transporting liquid and gaseous bulk; Petrobras Transporte S.A.—Transpetro had 68% of the fleet (26 ships) and 93% of the total transport capacity in this segment. Empresa de Navegação Elcano S.A. owned 16% of the fleet (six ships) and 3% of total capacity, while Flumar Transportes de Quimicos e Gases Ltda. had 5% of the fleet (two ships) and 3% of total capacity. Others had less than 1%.

3 Empresa de Pesquisa Energética, Balanço Energético Nacional 2022: Ano Base 2021 [Brazilian Energy Balance 2022: Year 2021] (Rio de Janeiro, 2022), https://www.epe.gov.br/sites-pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/PublicacoesArquivos/publicacao-675/topico-638/BEN2022.pdf.

Solid bulk

The cabotage of solid bulk is strongly connected to the mining sector and the main products were ores (91% of total tonnes transported), salt (6%), and solid mineral fuels (1%). Solid bulk transport in cabotage is concentrated in the north of Brazil, and these shipments are mostly bauxite, the third most abundant natural resource in Brazil. Four companies engaged in cabotage of solid bulk. Elcano S.A owned 50% of the fleet (four ships) and had 56% of total transport capacity. Lyra Navegação Marítima owned 25% of the fleet (two ships) and had 10% of the transport capacity. Hidrovias do Brasil owned 13% of the fleet (one ship) and had 23% of total transport capacity, and Norsul owned 13% of the fleet (one ship) and had 10% of the transport capacity. As the transport of bauxite is based on long-term contracts and a dedicated fleet, there is little competition for the EBNs operating in this market.

Containerized cargo

Three EBNs operated in this segment and collaborated to offer multiple services: Aliança Navegação e Logística, Log-In Logística Intermodal, and Mercosul Line. They each had six ships registered. Aliança had 44% of transportation capacity, followed by Log-In (30%), and Mercosul Line (26%). All are subsidiaries of international corporations. Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) owns a majority stake in Log-in Logística Intermodal, Aliança is part of AP Moller – Maersk, and Mercosul Line is part of the CMA CGM Group. These EBNs offer feeder operations that transfer foreign cargo for import or export, an important part of cabotage services. Six products represented 51% of total tonnes of cabotage-related container cargo; these and 14 additional products represented 80% of total tonnes. Containerized cargo transport is more distributed throughout Brazil than the other cargo types. Main origin and destination points are in all regions along the coast.

General cargo

Since 2011, general cargo’s share of total cabotage tonnage in Brazil has steadily declined. Two products represent more than 90% of general cargo cabotage: steel products (70%) and cellulose (22%), the primary material for making paper. Forestry products such as wood and charcoal are third most common but represent only 3% of total tonnes transported. Ten ships and two EBNs provided 99% of the transport capacity: Tranship Tranportes Marítimos Ltda. owned five ships and had 24% of transport capacity, while Norsul owned two ships and had 75% of transport capacity. The main origins and destinations of general cargo cabotage are associated with steel products transported from Espírito Santo (Southeast Region) to Santa Catarina (South Region); forest products and cellulose transported from Bahia (Northeast Region) to Espírito Santo (Southeast Region), and steel products from Ceará (Northeast Region) to São Paulo (Southeast Region).

Investing in decarbonization

The BR do Mar program, embodied in Law No. 14.301/2022, updated legislation aimed at increasing the supply and quality of cabotage services in Brazil and promoting the competitiveness of EBNs, especially in the containerized cargo segment.4 Additionally, the company that owns and operates most of the ships operating in cabotage in Brazil, Transpetro, aims to reduce emissions from its ships by 11% and plans to invest BRL 64 million in decarbonization efforts by 2027.5 Among its planned projects, the company lists high-technology hull coatings to prevent fouling by marine organisms (thereby reducing fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions), use of advanced algorithms to identify the most efficient routes, optimization of main engine combustion, and use of biofuel blends.6 Furthermore, the major international container shipping companies that control or own companies operating in cabotage in Brazil have published sustainability goals; these goals include decarbonization of their global supply chains. The decarbonization goals published by the companies are included in Table 1.

Table 1. Major international container shipping companies’ decarbonization goals and their Brazilian subsidiaries

International corporation

EBN subsidiary

Decarbonization goals related to international maritime transport

Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)

Log-In

Work throughout the MSC value chain to promote the investments needed to be carbon neutral throughout operations, develop logistical support solutions, and focus on energy efficiency.

Work with stakeholders to promote the use of alternative fuels, including the necessary infrastructure and distribution systems.

AP Moller – Maersk

Aliança

Decarbonization target for 2030 compliant with the Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) 1.5o C pathway to achieve absolute emissions reductions between 35% and 50% from a 2020 baseline; target of being carbon neutral by 2040 across all scopes and businesses.

CMA CGM Group

Mercosul Line

The 2022 CSR Report said the company aimed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions for Mercosul Line by 2050, including having at least 10% of alternative fuels in its energy matrix by 2023, and reaching 100% renewable electricity in logistics warehouses by 2025.

Pursue initiatives that include the use of alternative fuels in ships and designing ships with greater energy efficiency.

As Brazil’s cabotage fleet primarily transports materials for the oil and gas industry, strategies to decarbonize national maritime transportation will require the participation and support of this sector. Recent analysis showed that supply and container vessels are the ship classes responsible for most of the emissions inside Brazil’s EEZ.7 The engagement of companies operating in the supply and container vessel segments will be crucial for the implementation of national decarbonization measures.

4 Lei No. 14.301, de 7 de janeiro de 2022, https://www.planalto.gov. br/ccivil_03/_ato2019-2022/2022/lei/l14301.htm.
5 Transpetro, “Transpetro Investe em Eficiência Energética e Descarbonização da sua Frota” [invests in energy efficiency and decarbonization of its fleet], news release, August 23, 2023, https://transpetro.com.br/transpetro-institucional/noticias/ transpetro-investe-em-eficiencia-energetica-e-descarbonizacao-da-sua-frota.htm.
6 Transpetro, Relatório de Sustentabilidade 2022 [Sustainability report 2022], https://sustentabilidade.petrobras.com.br.
7 Francielle Carvalho, Recommendations to Develop a Brazilian Maritime National Action Plan (Washington, DC: International Council on Clean Transportation, 2023), https://theicct.org/ publication/recommendation-to-develop-a-brazilian-maritime-national-action-plan-aug23/.

Data sources and methodology

The information presented in the figures was obtained from Brazil’s National Agency of Waterway Transportation (ANTAQ) databases. ANTAQ is responsible for regulating, supervising, and monitoring the activities of waterway transport services and port and waterway infrastructure operations. Two ANTAQ databases were consulted in April and May 2023: “Estatístico Aquaviário” [Waterway statistical panel], http://ea.antaq.gov.br/QvAJAXZfc/opendoc. htm?document=painel%5Cantaq%20-%20 anu%C3%A1rio%202014%20-%20v0.9.3.qvw&lang=pt- BR&host=QVS%40graneleiro&anonymous=true and “Navegação Marítima – Frota Geral – Analítica” [Maritime navigation – general fleet – analytics], http://web.antaq.gov.br/Portal/Frota/ ConsultarFrotaGeral.aspx.

Shipping companies’ websites were consulted, but when there were differences between the ANTAQ databases and companies’ reports, data from ANTAQ was prioritized. For example, there are differences between the container ship fleet data in ANTAQ’s databases and the information provided by the three EBNs on their websites. The information presented in this publication was from the ANTAQ database. For the general cargo fleet, we also found differences between ANTAQ data and companies’ websites. The ANTAQ database contains information about general cargo vessels that is mixed with barges that might not be operating in the general cargo sector. For example, although Tranship’s fleet is included in ANTAQ’s general cargo database, the company operates more in the oil and gas sector with open deck barges, according to its website.8

The ANTAQ database indicates that companies in the general cargo segment operate with open deck barges designed to transport special cargo rather than general cargo; some of these barges are associated with the oil and gas industry. Norsul’s website says that it operates in the general cargo segment with a fleet of barges and ocean pusher craft designed to transport cellulose and steel products.9 To be consistent with the other cabotage transport segments presented in this analysis, all data presented in the figures were obtained from ANTAQ database.

The ownership of the EBNs was sourced from the following:

 

8 “Frota” [Fleet], Tranship, accessed April 2023, http://www.tstranship.com.br/frota.html . The ANTAQ database indicates that companies in the general cargo segment operate with open deck barges designed to transport special cargo rather than general cargo; some of these barges are associated with the oil and gas industry. Norsul’s website says that it operates in the general cargo segment with a fleet of barges and ocean pusher craft designed to transport cellulose and steel products.9

9 “Navegação – Cabotagem e Longo Curso” [Navigation – Cabotage and Long Haul], Norsul, accessed April 2023, https://www.norsul.com/servicos/navegacao/.To be consistent with the other cabotage transport segments presented in this analysis, all data presented in the figures were obtained from ANTAQ database.

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]]> Race to Zero European heavy-duty vehicle market development quarterly (January–December 2023) https://theicct.org/publication/race-to-zero-eu-hdv-market-development-q4-2023-mar24/ Tue, 19 Mar 2024 12:27:53 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=38747  Analyzes manufacturers’ market readiness to develop and deploy zero-emission commercial trucks and buses in Europe.

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Summary

In 2023, 11,000 new zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles were sold in the EU-27—more than double the 5,000 sold in 2022. Zero-emission vehicles were 18% of all buses and coaches sold, 5% of light and medium trucks, and 0.9% of heavy trucks. The majority of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle sales occurred in three countries: Germany (30%), France (15%), and the Netherlands (15%). Portugal experienced the most rapid growth, as sales increased from 4 zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles in 2022 to 400 in 2023; almost all of these were buses, and they were a nearly 4% share of all zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle sales in the EU-27.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, just over 3,300 new zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles were sold in the EU-27—a 19% increase from the third quarter. Of these, 1,700 were buses and coaches, 700 were light and medium trucks, and 900 were heavy trucks. The sales share of zero-emission vehicles in the heavy truck segment exceeded 1% for the first time, up from 0.8% in the third quarter. Shares of zero-emission buses and coaches in total sales of that segment increased from 16% to 22% over the same period, while zero-emission light and medium trucks dipped from 8% to 6%. In France, sales of zero-emission vehicles doubled from 200 units in the third quarter to 460 units in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Heavy trucks

Trucks with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes

In 2023, zero-emission heavy truck sales in the EU-27 were 2,600 (0.9% share of all new heavy trucks sold), an increase of over three-fold from the 820 sold in 2022 (0.3% share). Sales in Germany were the highest and that is where 29% of the zero-emission vehicles were sold; France was home to 21% of sales, half of these in the fourth quarter of 2023. Mercedes-Benz sold the most conventional heavy-trucks of any manufacturer, enough for a 20% share, and sold 12% of the zero-emission heavy trucks sold in 2023. Volvo Trucks sold the most zero-emission heavy trucks, a 42% share, and only 17% of conventional heavy trucks. Renault Trucks, which sold 24% of the zero-emission heavy trucks, manufacturers the most popular model, the Renault 4×2 D cab, of which 200 were sold in 2023.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, heavy trucks were 77% of all heavy-duty vehicle sales. Of the 86,000 heavy trucks sold in the fourth quarter, 920 were zero-emission vehicles, a 1.4% share. Volvo Group, which consists of Volvo Trucks and Renault Trucks, produced 70% of all zero-emission heavy trucks—up from 63% in the third quarter of 2023—while accounting for less than a quarter of conventional vehicle sales.

Light and medium trucks

Trucks with a gross vehicleweight between 3.5 tonnes and 12 tonnes

In 2023, light and medium trucks achieved a 28% growth in sales compared with 2022—the largest year-on-year growth of the three segments. Zero-emission vehicle sales increased by 200%, from 1,000 in 2022 (2.1% share) to 3,100 in 2023 (4.8% share). The leading zero-emission vehicle model was the Ford Otosan E-Transit, which made up 60% of zero-emission vehicle sales this segment in 2023. IVECO and Mercedes-Benz each represented a quarter of the total sales across conventional light and medium trucks but combined only made 7% of the zero-emission vehicles sold. Nearly 1,600 zero-emission vehicles were sold in Germany—a share of over 50% in the segment.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, light and medium trucks were 15% of the 12,000 heavy-duty vehicles sold during this period; 730 of these were zero-emission vehicles, representing a decrease in the zero-emission sales share from 8% in the third quarter to 6% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Ford remained the largest supplier of zero-emission light and medium trucks; 270 Ford E-Transit vehicles were sold in the fourth quarter of 2023, down from 770 in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, 150 Fiat Ducatos were sold.

Buses and coaches

With a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes

In 2023, the EU-27 had a 16% increase in bus and coach sales. Zero-emission buses accounted for 18% of sales in the segment in 2023, a 4% increase over 2022. France had the largest share of all bus and coach sales in the EU-27 in 2023 with 20%, while Germany led in zero-emission bus and coach sales with a 17% share. Manufacturers leading the segment in zero-emission vehicle sales were MAN, Solaris, and Karsan, which each had 12% of sales.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, buses and coaches were 9% of the sales of all heavy-duty vehicles. Of the 7,700 vehicles sold during this time, 1,700 were zero-emission vehicles, a 22% share and a significant increase from the 16% share in the third quarter. The sales share of battery electric city buses increased to 45% in the fourth quarter of 2023, up from 36% in the third and second quarter. MAN and Solaris tied in delivering the greatest share of zero-emission buses in the fourth quarter at 14% of sales each, while capturing 15% and 2%, respectively, of the conventional vehicle market.

Technology focus: Zero-emission vehicle manufacturers by region

Looking beyond quarterly sales

Manufacturers headquartered in the EU-27 have historically been the dominant suppliers of conventional diesel- and natural gas-powered heavy-duty vehicles to the bloc: Between 2013 and 2023, EU-27-based manufacturers produced 98% of the heavy trucks, 80% of light and medium trucks, and 90% of buses sold. With the rising demand for zero-emission powertrains, this market dynamic is beginning to shift and foreign manufacturers are stepping in to supply increasing numbers of vehicles.

The bus segment has seen the fastest rate of growth in zero-emission vehicles. Zero-emission buses surpassed a 1% share of all bus sales for the first time in 2017 and achieved an 18% share in 2023. Over the same period, the share of zero-emission buses produced by manufacturers headquartered in China and sold in the EU-27 increased from 10% to 30%; most of these were sold by BYD and Yutong and, more recently, there have been sales by new entrants such as Guangtong and Zhong Tong.

The light and medium truck segment has seen the most fluctuations of the heavy-duty segments, and few zero-emission models have led the market. The StreetScooter WORK XL, made by the German company StreetScooter, was 22% of zero-emission sales in this segment in 2022, and that fell to 6% in 2023. On the other hand, the E-Transit produced by Ford Otosan in Turkey was60% of all zero-emission light and medium truck sales in 2023, up from 17% in 2022.

The heavy truck segment is the only segment for which nearly all production of zero-emission trucks remains within the EU-27. In 2023, 97% of all zero-emission heavy trucks were manufactured within the bloc, with Volvo Group responsible for over half of those. The heavy truck segment is also the least mature market of the three, and as demand for zero-emission long-haul trucks continues to rise, there may be growing international competition for manufacturers based in the EU-27, threatening their leading position.

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions
  • A zero-emission vehicle is any vehicle whose propulsion system produces zero combustion emissions, such as a dedicated battery-electric, fuel cell-electric, or other motor that is not driven by combustion.
  • A heavy-duty vehicle is a commercial vehicle, intended for the transport of passengers or freight, with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes.
  • A heavy truck is a truck with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes.
  • A light and medium truck is a truck or van with a gross vehicle weight between 3.5 tonnes and 12 tonnes.
  • A city bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used exclusively in urban environments.
  • An interurban bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used in both urban and regional environments.
  • A coach is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used exclusively in regional environments.
  • All data for heavy trucks, light and medium trucks, buses and coaches, and the technology focus on zero-emission vehicle manufacturers by region were supplied by his Markit; Copyright © IHS Markit, 2024. The exception is the battery size and chemistries in Figures 1.4 and 2.4, which were derived from manufacturer websites and press releases. All countries in the EU-27, except Bulgaria, are covered here.

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]]> European Market Monitor QuarterlyEuropean car and van market and charging infrastructure development: January–December 2023 https://theicct.org/publication/eu-car-and-van-market-development-quarterly-december23-mar24/ Fri, 01 Mar 2024 17:01:20 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=38134 EU quarterly market monitor for cars and vans offers data on new registrations, charging infrastructure, and estimation of CO2 emission targets compliance by manufacturers.

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Passenger car registrations

New car registrations in Europe increased an average of 13% in 2023, with a 4% increase in the fourth quarter compared with the same period the previous year. Tesla stood out with an 80% increase in registrations in 2023, followed by Volkswagen (+17%). Registrations of Ford (-3%) and Stellantis (+2%) largely stagnated in 2023. The average European market share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2023 was about 15%, with a 17% market share in the fourth quarter, four percentage points higher than the 2022 average. Both Ford (6%) and the Subaru-Suzuki-Toyota pool (2%) continued to lag in shares of BEV registrations.1 The average plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) share remained below 2022 levels in 2023 by about two percentage points. All manufacturers were able to meet their specific CO2 emissions targets for 2023, with an estimated average over-compliance of about 14 g CO2/km.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

1 Several manufacturing pools have changed since the previous quarter. For further details, see pool definitions at the end of this document.

Passenger car registrations by country

BEV and PHEV market shares averaged 23% in Europe in 2023. Norway (90%), Iceland (61%), Sweden (60%), and Finland (55%) all had shares above 50%, while Denmark (46%), the Netherlands (44%), and Belgium (40%) also had well above average BEV and PHEV market shares for Europe. Among the largest markets, the largest increase in BEV registrations occurred in Belgium, where shares increased 9 percentage points in 2023 compared with 2022. In the Netherlands, new BEV sales reached an all-time high of 35% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Of the major markets, 2023 PHEV registration shares were the highest in Belgium and Sweden (both 21%).

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Van registrations

Almost 1,470,000 new vans were registered in Europe in 2023, a 15% increase over 2022. Volkswagen (+28%) had the largest gains last year, while Mercedes-Benz van registrations only slightly increased (+4%). On average, battery electric vans represented 8% of new van registrations in 2023, up from 5% in 2022. While most manufacturers had above-average BEV market shares, Ford battery electric van shares averaged only 3% in 2023. The market share of battery electric vans stagnated at 8% in Germany in 2023, while the share in France increased to 7%, up from 5% in 2022. All manufacturers were able to meet their CO2 targets for 2023, with average overcompliance of 2 g CO2/km.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Charging infrastructure development

Nearly 700,000 public charging points were installed in Europe by the end of 2023, up from around 650,000 at the end of September. For alternating current (AC) charging, this represents an increase of around 35% compared with the end of 2022. Direct current (DC) charging points showed even greater growth, increasing 61% over the end of 2022. Approximately 84% of Europe’s public charging points supply AC, while the remaining 16% supply DC. In addition to considerable shares of BEV registrations, Denmark also recorded the largest growth in terms of AC chargers in 2023 compared with 2022 (+109%) and the second-largest growth in DC chargers (+134%). Only Belgium (+154%) recorded a greater increase in DC charging points in the same period. There were on average about 4.2 22 kW-equivalent publicly accessible charging points installed per thousand passenger cars and vans on the road at the end of December 2023, up from 3.8 at the end of September. With nearly 31 22 kW-equivalent publicly accessible charging points per thousand passenger cars and vans, Norway continues to lead Europe in charging infrastructure expansion, followed by Iceland (17), the Netherlands (13), Denmark (13), and Sweden (11). Italy (1.9) and Spain (1.7) remain well below the European average.

🔍 Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions
  • Manufacturer pools: Automakers are allowed to form pools to jointly comply with CO2 targets. For this publication, the definition of pools according to the European Commission’s “M1 pooling list,” version of 7 January 2024, applies (main brands listed here): BMW Group (BMW, Mini), Ford (Ford), Hyundai (Hyundai), Kia (Kia), Mercedes-Benz (Mercedes-Benz, Smart), Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (Dacia, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Renault), Stellantis (Alfa Romeo, Citroën, Fiat, Jeep, Lancia, Opel, Peugeot), Subaru-Suzuki-Toyota (Lexus, Subaru, Suzuki, Toyota), Tesla (Tesla), Volkswagen (Audi, Cupra, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, VW), and Volvo (Volvo). For light commercial vehicles, the “N1 pooling list,” version of 7 January 2024, applies: Ford (Ford), Mercedes-Benz (Mercedes-Benz, Mitsubishi Fuso), Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (Mitsubishi, Nissan, Renault), Stellantis (Citroën, Fiat, Opel, Peugeot), Volkswagen (MAN, Volkswagen).
  • Abbreviations: AC = alternating current; CO2 = carbon dioxide emissions; DC = direct current; g/km = grams per kilometer; N/A = not available; YTD = year to date.
  • Technical scope: This publication focuses on new passenger car and light commercial vehicle registrations. Electric vehicles here include battery electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV).
  • Geographic scope: The European CO2 regulation for vehicle manufacturers applies to all countries of the European Economic Area (EEA). This includes the 27 Member States of the European Union plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway. Data for new car and van registrations and shares of electric vehicles in this publication cover all of these countries, with the exception of Bulgaria, Liechtenstein, and Malta. Data for CO2 emission levels additionally omit Hungary, Lithuania (until January 2021), Poland (until April 2020), and Romania (together less than 10% of the total market). Charging infrastructure data are presented for the 27 EU members plus the four European Free Trade Association countries (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland).
  • Data sources: Dataforce (new vehicle registrations), Eco-Movement (charging points).
  • Results may change over time: Registrations and/or CO2 data may be retrospectively updated by some of the national type-approval authorities. Similarly, charging infrastructure data may also be retrospectively updated by Eco-Movement. Historical values are regularly updated to reflect all latest data available.
  • Test procedures: CO2 values are provided according to the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP).
  • Flexible compliance mechanisms: To facilitate meeting their CO2 targets, manufacturers can make use of a number of compliance mechanisms. Manufacturers can reduce their CO2 level by up to 7 g/km by deploying eco-innovation technologies. To incentivize eco-innovations, CO2 savings from eco-innovations per passenger car and light commercial vehicle are amplified by multipliers in the years 2021, 2022, and 2023. For 2023, the multiplier is set to 1.5. As a conservative estimate, we apply the 2022 level of eco-innovation CO2 emission reductions per manufacturer. For more on the methodology used see: Uwe Tietge, Peter Mock, and Jan Dornoff, Overview and evaluation of eco-innovations in European passenger car CO2 standards, (ICCT: Washington, DC, 2018), https://theicct.org/publications/eco-innovations-european-passenger-car-co2-standards.
  • Mass-based targets: For each manufacturer pool, a specific 2023 CO2 target value applies, depending on the average mass of the new vehicles registered. For this publication, we assume the average mass per manufacturer pool to remain constant with respect to the market situation in 2022. For more on the methodology used see: Jan Dornoff, Víctor Valverde, and Uwe Tietge, CO2 emissions from new passenger cars in Europe: Car manufacturers’ performance in 2022, (ICCT: Washington, DC, 2024), https://theicct.org/publication/co2-emissions-new-pv-europe-car-manufacturers-performance-2022-feb24/.
  • Charging point: As defined in the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation, a charging point “means a fixed or mobile interface that allows for the transfer of electricity to an electric vehicle, which, whilst it may have one or several connectors to accommodate different connector types, is capable of recharging only one electric vehicle at a time, and excludes devices with a power output less than or equal to 3.7 kW the primary purpose of which is not recharging electric vehicles.”

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]]> European heavy-duty vehicle market development quarterly: January – September 2023 https://theicct.org/publication/eu-hdv-market-development-quarterly-september23-jan24/ Mon, 29 Jan 2024 23:01:15 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=36461 A detailed analysis of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle sales in the EU-27 from January to September 2023, highlighting key trends and market shares among different vehicle types and manufacturers, while also exploring the emerging technology focus on electrified road systems.

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European heavy-duty vehicle market development quarterly: January – September 2023 (final v2) by The International Council on Clean Transportation on Scribd

This publication was updated on February 15, 2024, to include additional electrified road system projects.

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]]> European heavy-duty vehicle market development quarterly: January – June https://theicct.org/publication/eu-hdv-market-monitor-q1-2-jan24/ Mon, 22 Jan 2024 22:00:32 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=35433 Snapshot of the conventional and electric vehicle market in the European Union.

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]]> Leading cities for new energy heavy-duty trucks https://theicct.org/publication/leading-cities-for-new-energy-heavy-duty-trucks-dec23/ Thu, 28 Dec 2023 17:00:15 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=34950 Five cities—Shenzhen, Beijing, Handan, Anyang, and Yangquan—deployed 73% of all new energy (NE) dump trucks and tractor trucks in China in 2020.

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